In three years AI users went from 0 to 18M, but even the creator said "the revolution hasn't happened"
On April 9, 2026, Sal Khan said something in a Chalkbeat interview
He said Khanmigo was basically a "non-event" for students — they just were not using it much
That made me pause
Because at the same moment, Khanmigo's numbers were:
- 18M students globally
- 350 US school districts using it daily
- Across 34 languages
- Integrated with both Microsoft and Google
Scale exploded, but PMF still did not click
I have spent almost three years doing AI projects around education in Taiwan, and this contradiction kept spinning in my head
This post is my notes on the last three years of edtech AI evolution, and also prep work for a short talk I recently gave
What happened in these three years
2023 was the first GPT-4 wrapper wave
In the same month GPT-4 was released, Khanmigo and Duolingo Max both launched as AI tutors built by "wrapping GPT-4"
Back then everyone asked the same question: will AI replace teachers
2024 was when the platform war started
Microsoft integrated Khanmigo and offered it free to educators worldwide
Khanmigo K-12 users jumped from 40,000 to 700,000 in one school year
Duolingo Max added roleplay + explain-my-answer, targeting advanced learners at $30/month
Edtech players in many countries started testing the waters, including Junyi in Taiwan
2025 brought a qualitative shift — LLM companies entered directly instead of waiting for edtech companies to call their APIs
Anthropic launched Claude for Education in April
Learning Mode expanded to all users in August, not just education plans
Google started pushing Gemini for Education
The game shifted from "edtech companies using big-tech APIs" to "big-tech companies shipping education products themselves"
2026 shifted the battlefield again
- Anthropic + Teach For All — 100,000 educators / 63 countries / 1.5M students
- Google + ISTE — free Gemini training for 6M US K-12 teachers
- Microsoft AI classrooms — broad rollout
- McKinsey data: 78% K-12 + 92% higher ed using AI (vs 23% / 41% in 2023)
The battlefield quietly moved from "student-facing tutors" to "teacher AI enablement" + "classroom infrastructure"
Three player types, very different realities
Type 1: Student-facing AI teachers (Tutor products)
Representative players: Khanmigo, Duolingo Max, Quizlet AI
Scale is large, but PMF is uncertain
Problems:
- Khanmigo's own founder admitted "the revolution hasn't happened"
- Students do not open it proactively, friction is high
- Direct answers create brain-rot risk (the more you use it, the less you think — this is not exaggeration, this is a design issue)
- Teacher feedback is mixed: sometimes helpful, sometimes students regress
Type 2: Tool platforms (Tool + AI)
Representative player: Canva for Education + Magic Studio
Massive scale: 260M users / 190 countries / AI tools used 10B times / 15M paid + 150M users (including free K-12)
PMF exists
Why does this work while Khanmigo struggles
Canva students do not need to "want to study" first before opening it. They open it to finish assignments, slides, posters — and AI helps right there
AI becomes a productivity multiplier with immediate visible output, so motivation appears naturally
Learning is a byproduct, not the main character, and that distinction is critical
Type 3: LLM giants entering directly
Anthropic (Claude for Education led by Drew Bent) / Google (Gemini + NotebookLM) / OpenAI (ChatGPT Edu)
This is infrastructure-level scale with three legs: models, compute, and enterprise sales
Anthropic ARR was close to $19B in 2026, OpenAI over $25B
For content companies, competing head-on with that stack is very hard
There is also a fourth type: those who got eaten (the Chegg story)
I intentionally skipped one before talking about the three types
Chegg
The largest US homework-help / textbook-rental / tutoring platform, with a peak market cap of $14.7B in February 2021
On May 2, 2023, its CEO said one sentence on the earnings call: "ChatGPT is impacting new customer growth"
The stock fell 50% that day
By early 2026, the stock dropped to about $1, with only $156M market cap left
99% of market value evaporated in 39 months
Chegg did not ignore AI. In April 2023 it partnered with OpenAI and launched CheggMate (its own AI product)
But wrapping ChatGPT to compete with ChatGPT is a dead end
In 2024, Google AI Overviews took another bite out of Chegg's organic search traffic
In May 2025 they cut 22% of staff (248 people), and in October the same year another 45% (388 people)
Subscribers fell from a 7.8M peak to 3.2M
The most brutal survey number: students planning to use Chegg dropped from 38% to 30%, while those planning to use ChatGPT rose from 43% to 62%
The lesson is not "AI killed edtech"
The lesson is "old edtech dies fastest when 'we'll just add AI' is the strategy"
If your core value is paid answer-copying / homework-solving, ChatGPT free tier drives that value toward zero
This is different from Khanmigo. Khanmigo is scaling without clear PMF, while Chegg had its core business model hollowed out
What market data is saying
The AI-in-education market was $7.05B in 2025, $9.58B in 2026, and projected at $32B-$41B by 2030 (different firms estimate roughly 4-5x)
Overall e-learning market reaches $365B in 2026
Numbers look beautiful, but two anchors matter
First anchor: student use of ChatGPT is seasonal
OpenRouter data: during finals season on May 27, 2025, ChatGPT peaked at 97.4B tokens/day. In June (summer break), it dropped to 36.7B (down 54%)
Rutgers researchers analyzed 10,000 prompts and found strong school-calendar correlation; spring break + summer were dead zones
Meaning: a large part of ChatGPT traffic is homework copying
OpenAI burned $9B and made $4B in 2024 — already a cash-burn cycle. Layer in seasonality and the model gets fragile
Second anchor: growth is concentrated in tech giants + upgraded legacy edtech
The PMF window for new local entrants is already very narrow
Khanmigo has 18M users but still a "non-event", Chegg lost 99% of market value, Canva has 260M users but is not positioned as pure teaching
Differentiation is the only path — content IP / local verticals / tool-first entry points
Three insights from the contrast
Insight 1: The "answer machine" problem is not weak AI
Sal Khan's "non-event" comment reminded me of people I coached on Claude Code
When many people first try AI-assisted development, their instinct is to use it like Google: ask one question, get one answer
People who learn fast do not do that
They ask AI: "Don't give me the answer yet, guide my thinking"
The difference is not in AI capability, but in usage design
Khanmigo's root problem is design philosophy:
Drew Bent's (Anthropic Education Lead) corrective design:
This is Socratic interaction, also anti-brain-rot design
But this mode is opt-in and OFF by default, and most people do not know it exists. I used Claude Code for half a year before I noticed it myself
Insight 2: Canva's lesson matters more than Khanmigo's
Canva has 14x Khanmigo's users (260M vs 18M), yet almost nobody seriously analyzes Canva in AI-education conversations
Why
The takeaway for parents and educators: students learn better when they encounter AI while doing real tasks, not when they are told to sit down and "go learn AI"
This is not saying we should abandon active learning. It says AI intervention-point design matters
Insight 3: After big-tech entry, local players have fewer choices
LLM giants arrive with three legs: models, compute, and FDE sales
For local content players, only three paths remain:
Chinese language / local markets / family education are long-tail for global giants, but home turf for local players
I think Taiwan's education community still has not discussed this seriously enough
The person I most want to highlight: Drew Bent
I have followed many people in AI education, and Drew Bent is the most underestimated by far
His background is unusual:
- MIT double major in Physics + CS
- Stanford master's in education
- Knight-Hennessy Scholar
- Former Khan Academy engineer
- Co-founded Schoolhouse.world with Sal Khan (170K students / 180 countries, free peer-to-peer tutoring)
- Now Anthropic Education Lead
A few lines from his public interviews stuck with me:
"human to human interaction is at the core of education"
"personalized done right should be personal"
"bullish on tutoring as a way to have a human in each person's life"
He is not saying AI replaces human teachers. He is saying AI completes the stack so everyone can have a human-like companion
Claude Learning Mode's design rules come from that philosophy:
| Rule | Behavior |
|---|---|
| No direct answers | Guide students through questions |
| Socratic interaction | "Do you think the core is X or Y?" |
| Anti brain rot | Prevent AI dependency |
| Code learning scenario | Use TODO(human) to force student-written code |
How to enable it:
# Inside Claude Code
/output-style learning
# Inside chat.claude.ai
Select the "Learning" style in the chat UI
It is off by default, so you have to choose it yourself
I personally ran it once with "teach me what continual learning is"
The feel is very different from a normal answer machine. It is not AI dumping knowledge; it anchors from what I already know and guides me to articulate new concepts myself
After the session I noticed something: the parts I thought I understood became reinforced, and the parts I could not explain were forced into clarity
That feels like a different world from Khanmigo's "non-event"
Taiwan perspective: Jian-Lifeng sees the same thing
While writing this, I kept asking why Drew Bent's design philosophy is rarely discussed seriously in Taiwan
After reviewing Jian-Lifeng's talks from the last two years, I realized he and Drew Bent are pointing in the same direction from different angles
A few of Jian-Lifeng's lines are best quoted directly
On learning and questioning:
"One Q&A is plagiarism, ten Q&As is learning, a hundred Q&As is creation"
"The answer comes from smart ask"
"Good answers come from smart questions. If you don't understand fundamentals, you can't guide AI to solve problems"
These align directly with Learning Mode — AI is not an answer machine, it is a partner that helps you ask better
On thinking and the brain warning:
"Don't outsource your brain to AI"
"Always think for 10 minutes yourself before asking AI"
This is the Taiwan version of the brain-rot warning, just more direct
On talent structure, he uses the "pi-shaped talent" idea:
"Talent needs two legs like the Greek letter pi: one leg is domain depth, one leg is AI collaboration ability, and the top bar is breadth of knowledge"
"Breadth matters more than depth" (breadth determines how well you can ask)
"The passing line has moved from 60 to 80" (AI can already handle 60-level work, so the human baseline moved up)
His two hardest lines about education:
"We are all AI immigrants. The true natives are not born yet"
"Schools teach knowledge AI already knows, while companies need what AI still cannot do but you must understand (tacit knowledge)"
The first line admits everyone is still figuring it out
The second is a fundamental challenge to schools — if schools only teach open knowledge (the part AI learns fastest), students graduate as a "lost generation" (his phrase)
His societal warning:
"AI may create tool-using superhumans where 1% capture 99% of wealth and opportunity"
It sounds extreme, but look at Khanmigo's 18M users still being a non-event, Chegg losing 99% market value, and ChatGPT summer traffic dropping by half. The 1% vs 99% split is not a prediction, it is already emerging
So what does this mean for you
If you are an educator or parent:
Do not use AI as an answer machine — ask, answer, forget, ask again is exactly the brain-rot loop. It is real, not panic talk
Try Claude Learning Mode — turn it on when learning, turn it off when executing
Let students encounter AI while doing real work. Do not make AI a separate place they must deliberately "go study"
Teachers' roles are shifting too: from "teaching knowledge" to "designing game rules" so students + AI can produce meaningful outcomes
If you build education products or courses in Taiwan:
Content IP is the moat, not just the content platform — big-tech cannot replicate your 20 years of local nuance
Do not build the Nth tutor product. If even Sal Khan says it struggled, you are unlikely to beat that
Learn from Canva, not Khanmigo — tool-first, learning as a byproduct
Partner with big tech strategically instead of competing with them — Anthropic Education and Google Education both need vertical localization partners. Chinese markets are your home turf
Closing
Three years ago everyone asked whether AI would replace teachers
Now the question is whether teachers who use AI will replace teachers who do not
Khanmigo proves scale does not equal PMF
Canva proves tool + AI can land earlier than tutor + AI
The Learning Mode pushed by Drew Bent at Anthropic is still the closest design I have seen to "AI making people better thinkers" — but it is opt-in, and you have to turn it on yourself
That opt-in design is interesting in itself
You know it exists, but you still have to choose it
Like many things
One last time, Drew Bent's line:
"personalized done right should be personal"
In the AI era, personalization is not throwing you to an algorithm. It is preserving your own learning path and thinking style
Sources / Further Reading
- Sal Khan says Khanmigo was a "non-event" (Chalkbeat, Apr 9, 2026)
- Chegg Lost $14 Billion to ChatGPT in Three Years (European Business Magazine)
- Chegg Collapse: How AI Wiped Out a USD 14.7 Billion EdTech Giant (LatestLY)
- Chegg shares tumbled 50% after ChatGPT impact (Fortune, May 2, 2023)
- OpenAI Usage Plummets in Summer When Students Aren't Cheating (Futurism)
- AI in Education Market 2025-2030 (Grand View Research)
- AI in Education Market $9.58B in 2026 (Precedence Research)
- RIP Khanmigo & Edtech AI Tutor Dreams (Dan Meyer)
- Drew Bent interview: Claude for Education (Edtech Insiders Podcast)
- Anthropic expands Learning Mode to all users (Aug 2025)
- Drew Bent on YouTube: Top 1% Learners use AI to Think Better
- Schoolhouse.world
- Anthropic + Teach For All global educator program
- Canva Magic Studio for education
- Duolingo Max business model
- TIME 2026 EdTech ranking
Written on 2026-05-09 as prep work for a short talk. AI in education changes fast, so the scale numbers in this post will keep moving. The point is not the snapshot numbers, but the design philosophy differences across these player types. It will be interesting to revisit Khanmigo / Drew Bent / Canva PMF evolution in six months
